One play. One missed field goal. One two-point swing at Bryant-Denny Stadium—and suddenly, Alabama Crimson Tide’s playoff dreams are hanging by a thread. On Tuesday, November 18, 2025, the College Football Playoff Selection Committee released its third rankings of the 2025-26 season, and the Alabama Crimson Tide tumbled six spots—from No. 4 to No. 10—after losing 24-22 at home to the University of Oklahoma Sooners. The loss, sealed when Alabama kicker Brady Cook missed a 47-yard attempt with 12 seconds left, wasn’t just a defeat. It was a seismic shake-up. For the first time since 2018, the Crimson Tide sits outside the top eight in the CFP’s third-week report. And with only one game left, the pressure is suffocating.
How a Home Loss Changed Everything
It wasn’t just that Alabama lost. It was how they lost. The Sooners, ranked No. 8 and also at 8-2, came into Tuscaloosa as underdogs. But they outplayed the Tide in the trenches, held Alabama’s offense to just 3.8 yards per carry, and forced two critical turnovers in the red zone. The College Football Playoff Selection Committee, led by chairman Chris Del Conte of University of Texas at Austin, didn’t just see a loss—they saw a team that looked vulnerable against a quality opponent. Oklahoma’s win wasn’t a fluke. It was a statement. And the committee rewarded it.
The drop was the steepest among all Power Five teams this week. Even Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-2), who beat a ranked team on the road, stayed at No. 9. Alabama didn’t just lose to a good team—they lost at home, to a team that had already lost twice. That’s the kind of mistake the committee doesn’t forgive.
The Road to Redemption: Oregon Looms
Now, Alabama’s fate rests on a single game: November 29, 2025, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon, against the Oregon Ducks (9-1). Win, and they jump back into contention. Lose, and their season ends in disappointment. The winner of that game advances to face the undefeated Indiana Hoosiers (11-0) in the quarterfinals on December 20, 2025, at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington.
Here’s the twist: Oregon’s only loss came to Washington in overtime. They’ve got a dynamic offense led by QB Jayden de Laura, who threw for 320 yards and three touchdowns last week. Alabama’s defense, which ranked top-10 nationally before the Oklahoma game, gave up 427 yards to the Sooners. Can they fix it in a week? Nobody knows. But the clock is ticking.
SEC Dominance, But Alabama’s Isolation
While Alabama tumbled, the Southeastern Conference remained the most powerful league in the rankings. Three SEC teams—Texas A&M Aggies (No. 3, 10-0), Georgia Bulldogs (No. 4, 9-1), and Ole Miss Rebels (No. 6, 10-1)—are all in the top six. The conference’s strength is undeniable. But Alabama’s fall highlights a growing divide: the elite versus the rest.
For years, Alabama’s name alone carried weight. But this year, the committee is judging by results, not reputation. The Crimson Tide have two losses now. Two. And they’re both at home. That’s not a resume. It’s a red flag.
What’s Next? Two More Rankings, One Shot
The College Football Playoff Selection Committee will release two more rankings before the final decision: November 25 and December 2, 2025. Each will be scrutinized like a court transcript. If Alabama beats Oregon, they’ll likely climb back into the top eight. But they’ll need help. Ohio State (10-0), Indiana (11-0), and Texas A&M (10-0) are all undefeated. Georgia’s loss came to LSU in Week 3—a tougher loss than Alabama’s to Oklahoma. The committee will compare strength of schedule, head-to-head results, and conference championships.
And then, on December 7, 2025, at 12:00 PM Eastern Time, ESPN will broadcast the final bracket. That’s when Alabama’s season will either be resurrected—or buried.
Historical Context: The Ghosts of 2018
Remember 2018? Alabama lost to LSU in November, dropped to No. 11 in the third rankings, and still made the playoff. But that was a different era. Nick Saban was still coaching. The system was less transparent. Today’s committee doesn’t care about legacy. They care about what’s on the tape. And the tape from Tuscaloosa showed a team that couldn’t close. That’s not just a loss. It’s a warning.
Alabama hasn’t missed the playoff since 2016. But if they lose to Oregon, that streak ends. And the silence in Tuscaloosa will be deafening.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can Alabama still make the College Football Playoff?
Yes—but only if they beat Oregon on November 29. Even then, they’ll need at least two teams ahead of them to lose or falter. With Indiana, Ohio State, and Texas A&M all undefeated, Alabama’s path is razor-thin. A win over Oregon would likely push them to No. 6 or 7, but they’d still need Notre Dame or Georgia to lose to have a realistic shot.
Why did Oklahoma’s win matter so much?
Oklahoma entered the game ranked No. 8 and had already lost twice—yet they beat Alabama on the road. The committee values quality wins more than ever. Oklahoma’s offense moved the ball efficiently, and their defense forced critical turnovers. Alabama’s loss wasn’t to a bad team—it was to a team that proved it belonged in the top 10, while Alabama looked out of sync. That’s why the drop was so steep.
How does this affect the SEC’s playoff chances?
The SEC still has three teams in the top six, giving it the strongest representation among Power Five conferences. But Alabama’s fall weakens the conference’s overall playoff depth. If Alabama misses out, the SEC could end up with only three teams in the final four—down from four last year. That could hurt future revenue and perception.
What’s the significance of the November 25 and December 2 rankings?
Those rankings are the final litmus tests before the bracket is set. If Alabama beats Oregon, they’ll likely jump to No. 6 or 7, and the committee will have to justify keeping teams above them. If they lose, those rankings will confirm their elimination. Coaches, fans, and analysts will dissect every word the committee says—especially regarding strength of schedule and head-to-head comparisons.
Has Alabama ever missed the playoff after starting 8-1?
No. Since the CFP began in 2014, Alabama has never lost two games in the same season and made the playoff. In 2016, they lost twice but still made it—because both losses were to top-five teams. This year, their losses are to teams ranked No. 8 and No. 12. That’s not the same narrative. The committee sees a pattern: Alabama isn’t invincible anymore.
What happens if Alabama beats Oregon but still doesn’t make the playoff?
They’ll likely land in the Sugar Bowl or Peach Bowl as a top-10 team. But for a program that’s won five national titles since 2009, that’s a step backward. The backlash from fans, alumni, and media would be intense. And it could accelerate coaching changes—or force a full rebuild of the program’s recruiting and development strategy.